Determining Operational Hit Probabilities for Field Artillery Weapons Systems
Boes, Richard William
Garvey, Richard E.
Barr, Donald R.
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The Department of the Army has expressed a need for the determination of the operational hit probabilities of several weapons systems in use throughout the Army. These hit probabilities, together with lethality models, should yield predictions of the effects such systems will have under various conditions of combat. In this thesis, operational hit probability (OHP) is defined as the probability that the center of impact of a volley of artillery fire will fall within a specified distance of the center of an area target. A general experimental methodology, which could be used to estimate OHP's (under simulated combat conditions) for a field artillery weapons system, is presented. More specifically, an approximate Chi-square distribution of squared radial miss distance is suggested for estimating OHP's. A method of using accuracy data from Army Training Tests to estimate required sample sizes for the experiment is proposed.
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