Economic analysis of provision of reliability in weapons.

Abstract

The problem analyzed is how to provide most efficiently in a weapon, in an economic sense, high reliability - defined as the probability of the weapon to operate properly whenever, within its prescribed service life, it is called upon to do so. The problem is discussed in the context of a re-entry body (weapon) for a strategic missile. A method is proposed for building up a supply curve of initial (when new) reliability, using a generalized Lagrange multiplier method. Selection of the reliability goal based upon the value of the product is discussed. A model is also developed for maintenance of reliability in the presence of degradation with time. The nature of this latter question is the acceptance of degradation of weapon output versus the cost of maintenance activities. Important parameters are examined in a cost minimization formulation using a standard Lagrangean format. The analysis is extended into subjective consideration of utility of reliability, and risk and uncertainty. How the analysis could be used to assist a weapon development agency in design and maintenance decisions is indicated.