A method for determining the tempo of operations aboard aircraft carriers through regression analyses of accidents

Abstract

Although variations in the tempo of flight deck operations aboard an aircraft carrier can be easily detected, no suitable method has been developed to measure this tempo. A method, based on two assumptions, which may solve this problem is presented. That the occurrence of accidents is linearly related to the many measurable events or factors comprising flight deck operations is the first assumption. The second is that tempo has a similar linear relationship with these factors. A regression analysis of accidents from previous flight deck operations is employed to find the partial correlation coefficients for each of these factors. An equation to measure tempo is then obtained using these coefficients as the weights for the various factors. Data from a U .S. S. FORRESTAL cruise are used to find these partial correlation coefficients for certain factors. In most cases these coefficients do not test significantly different from zero. As a result their value as weights is questionable. However, this does not invalidate the concepts used to develop the measure of tempo. It is hoped that future analyses, based on data from the cruises of many ships, will show this measure of tempo valid and reliable.