A probability model and patrol planning device for counter-insurgency operations on the Mekong River

Abstract

River warfare in Viet Nam and Thailand has brought about an increased interest in river patrol techniques. To aid the river patrol in their operations a probability model is constructed that could be used for the search of large groups of boats in a sector of a river. With this model, the patrol personnel can search a portion of the boats and make predictions of the actual number of insurgent craft present, or, with intelligence information they can predict the number of insurgent craft they will expect to find in a group of boats. Also, a graphical aid is developed that should be of use to the patrol personnel in planning their patrols. By use of the graphical aid they can efficiently distribute their searching efforts in the most probable areas of insurgent activity.