The probability of damage to an aircraft carrier from an underwater explosion

Abstract

This thesis presents a method, through the use of probability theory, of determining specific types of damage to an aircraft carrier. Consideration is given to the cases of loss of main machinery spaces and shafting resulting from side contact and underbottom non-contact explosions against a carrier possessing an underwater protective system. Probability density functions for the distribution of target hits, damage length, and charge weights are proposed. These are then incorporated into integral expressions which when evaluated within prescribed limits will determine the appropriate probabilities of damage. Illustrative examples of some of the proposed results are presented as a check on the validity of the theoretical expressions. Recommendations are made for means of obtaining actual density functions to insure completeness of this method of probabilistic approach to the determination of damage to a ship.