A statistical examination of the 500-mb 48-hr. prognoses prepared by Fleet Numerical Weather Facility, Monterey, California
Kelly, Roger W.
Nelson, Frank C.
Martin, Frank L.
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The Fleet Numerical Facility (FNWF) 500-mb long-wave prognoses at latitudes 20N through 70N were analyzed statistically for possible errorbias. FNWF issued a correction field (verified minus prognostic) for each latitude circle and day under study as well as the initial height field 48 hours earlier. Fourier analyses of both the correction fields and the initial height fields were made. Spectral analyses of the correction fields indicated that more than 607« of the error lay in correction-waves 1, 2, and 3 at all latitudes and that this figure increased northward. Persistency correlations were made between the initial height fields and the correction fields. The results indicated a carry-over of persistency into the final 48-hr forecast, especially in the cases of heights which were initially considerably above or below the normal heights. The final phase of the study dealt with the question of stabilization of the ultra-long waves (1, 2, and 3), using the present operational barotropic model. The model seems to retard waves 1 and 3 at the lower and middle latitudes, and to move them too far at high latitudes. The results for wave 2 are somewhat less conclusive, but are generally in agreement with those for waves 1 and 3.
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