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dc.contributor.advisorLucas, Thomas W.
dc.contributor.authorCoban, Muzaffer.
dc.date.accessioned2012-03-14T17:31:20Z
dc.date.available2012-03-14T17:31:20Z
dc.date.issued2001-12
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/1342
dc.description.abstractHistorical combat data analysis is a way of understanding the factors affecting battle outcomes. Current studies mostly prefer simulations that are based on mathematical abstractions of battles. However, these abstractions emphasize objective variables, such as force ratio. Models have very limited abilities of modeling important intangible factors like morale, leadership, and luck. Historical combat analysis provides a way to understand battles with the data taken from the actual battlefield. The models built by using classification trees reveal that the objective variables alone cannot explain the outcome of battles. Relative factors, such as leadership, have deep impacts on success. This result suggests that combat simulations will have a difficult time predicting combat outcomes unless we can better account for these intangible factors. Historical combat analysis helps us comprehend these factors. The classification model predictions on test sets reveal correct classification rates as high as 79 percent. Considering the variability in the data set this outcome is satisfying. Classification models also reveal that the factors affecting outcome of battles have changed throughout history. The leadership advantage played an important role for hundreds of years. However, in the 20th century, air sorties, tanks, and intelligence showed a higher importance.en_US
dc.description.urihttp://archive.org/details/predictingbattle109451342
dc.format.extentxx, 104 p. ;en_US
dc.publisherMonterey, California. Naval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.rightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. As such, it is in the public domain, and under the provisions of Title 17, United States Code, Section 105, may not be copyrighted.en_US
dc.titlePredicting battle outcomes with classification treesen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dc.contributor.departmentOperations Research
dc.description.serviceTurkish Army authoren_US
dc.identifier.oclc227993646
etd.thesisdegree.nameM.S.en_US
etd.thesisdegree.levelMastersen_US
etd.thesisdegree.disciplineOperations Researchen_US
etd.thesisdegree.grantorNaval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
etd.verifiednoen_US


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