Life after UNSCOM : the regional response to an unsupervised Iraqi WMD Program

Abstract

On 16 December 1998, United Nations arms inspectors were evacuated from Iraq. DESERT FOX commenced as the United States and Britain began an aerial attack as punishment for Iraq's repeated violations of UN resolution 687. While Iraq was punished, the resulting situation left an unsupervised Iraq to reconstitute its WMD program. This thesis examines the regional response of Iraq's neighbors to the perceived threat that Iraq might pose. Specifically, the reactions of Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel during the nine months following DESERT FOX are examined under a "balance of threat" model as posited by Stephen Walt. External responses such as realignments and internal responses such as WMD proliferation are sought to determine if "balance of threat" is a valid model to predict a state's behavior. This thesis determines if there has been a significant response from the region and if it requires a U.S. policy change. Finally, policy implications for the United States are discussed and new recommendations are proffered. Data used to write this thesis was strictly open source. Classified data could certainly alter the conclusions of this study.