An analysis of the effects of Aviation Career Continuation Pay (ACCP) using an Annualized Cost of Leaving (ACOL) approach

Abstract

The U.S. Navy offers financial inducements to its pool of aviators as a retention tool. Navy officials are currently considering replacing the current system of bonus payments, known as Aviation Continuation Pay (ACP), with a revised system known as Aviation Career Continuation Pay (ACCP). ACCP ties annual lump sum payments to accession to seagoing career milestone billets, whereas ACP provides payment only for remaining on active duty. This thesis analyzes retention statistics from the Navy Officer Master File and other data sources to develop an Annualized Cost of Leaving (ACOL) model. The model parameter that designates a monetary equivalent for a predilection to remain in the service was extrapolated into elements of the ACCP program using career progression statistics to project the effect of switching to ACCP on retention. This extrapolation yielded an estimation of a 19.68 percent increase in the likelihood of retention through year of service (YOS) 11 to YOS 20, 29.72 percent from YOS 16 to 20, 13.9 percent from YOS 16 to 25, and 8.86 percent from YOS 21 to 25.