The Enemy’s Access Denial System: Potential Competitor Exploitation of U. S. Military Vulnerabilities.

Abstract

As part of an experimental approach to “red teaming” that is studying the problem of enemy access denial systems, the author performed a detailed investigation of the vulnerabilities of the U. S. military’s power projection capabilities. The primary purpose of this document is to facilitate out-of-the-box thinking by future “red teams”. Thirty-six separate areas of vulnerability relevant to access denial were identified The vulnerabilities span all ranges from tactical to strategic, from weapons to logistics, and from military to societal. The agreement between this “list” of vulnerabilities and a previous list prepared independently by the Defense Science Board is striking. There is additional strong support for this list in the specific weapons systems that the three different “red teams” involved in the access denial study (all of whom preceded the completion of this study) opted to develop for their 2020 epoch force structures. Each of the 36 vulnerabilities identified here is examined in detail to define the nature of that vulnerability, its causes, and the things that affect it. In addition, specific ways in which a potential “near peer competitor” could exploit those vulnerabilities to enhance his access denial capability are discussed. In addition to it future use in “red teaming”, it is expected that this analysis can aid: • U. S. military staff in their long-range planning activities, • the military R&D community in determining areas that need additional research, and • intelligence professionals in identifying out foreign activities that might indicate a competitor’s intent to create an access denial capability. It can also be used as a starting point for other vulnerability studies.