Turkey's response to threats of weapons of mass destruction

Abstract

Unlike most of its NATO allies, Turkey did not emerge from the Cold War with enhanced security. The acquisition of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and ballistic missiles by its neighbors in the Middle Eastâ Iran, Iraq and Syriaâ creates a serious security concern for Turkey. This thesis analyzes the numerous threats posed to Turkey by its neighborsα nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs and their ballistic missiles. It evaluates Turkeyαs defense options to counter these threats and examines the credibility of NATOαs security guarantees, including the nuclear guarantees the United States provides under NATO auspices. The thesis concludes that Turkey must acquire the capabilities to deny adversaries the benefits of these weapons. These capabilitiesâ including passive and active defenses as well as improved counterforce meansâ will enable Ankara to strengthen deterrence and provide an effective defense should deterrence fail. Improving its preparedness for WMD contingencies should be an urgent, new priority for Turkey. The Turkish Armed Forces should have the necessary capabilities to fight, survive and prevail in NBC environments. In addition, NATOαs security guarantees, which hinge ultimately on the U.S. nuclear presence and U.S. extended deterrence commitments in Europe, and Turkeyαs own national defense and deterrence posture, must remain convincing to Turkey as well as to the WMD-armed states that threaten Turkey.