Using Hughes' Salvo model to examine ship characteristics in surface warfare

Abstract

As resources constrain investment decisions, what combination of parameters most effectively cause one force to defeat another? Using Hughes' Salvo equations, simulations are conducted to investigate the singular and pairwise effects of providing one force an advantage in its offensive power, defensive power, staying power, force size, and information. The purpose is to identify specific combinations that present potential priorities in ship design and force planning. Cases are examined in terms of fraction of forces killed and surviving, and consolidated in a comparison of fractional exchange ratios between the forces. Over the range of parameters explored, when forces are closely matched, a defensive advantage allows a force to outlast another, execute damage, and limit damage incurred to its own force. The Polya distribution of shots shows that the bonus gained by attaining perfect information is a significant edge, and the hazard of failing to deny the enemy the same.