Decision Analysis Applied to the Deployment of Modularized Ocean Basing Systems
Reifenberger, Robert A.
Marshall, Kneale T.
Marsh-Jones, Barbara Y.
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The decline in the availability of U.S. bases overseas, accompanied by rising permit costs and operational restrictions at many remaining sites, has led to the consideration of ocean-based support sites as an alternative to land-based systems. Specifically, the Carderock Division of the Naval Surface Warfare Center (CDNSWC), Mobile Support Systems Program Office, is conducting a feasibility study of Modularized Ocean Basing Systems (MOBS). Attendant to the development of these high-cost, limited availability systems is the requirement that selection of deployment sites be conducted with the goal of maximizing their effectiveness. This thesis employs the methodology and practice of decision analysis to develop a pilot model for assessment of potential regional deployment sites. Key factors incorporated into the model are the uncertainty associated with the availability of Host Nation Support and the possible escalation of hostilities. MOBS and Host Nation Support effectiveness are measured in terms of capacity and the num ber of channels available for the flow of personnel and material, modified by the likely support system degradation inherent at higher levels of conflict. Costs associated with the respective systems are incorporated. The decision maker is provided an assessment of the impact of different MOBS deployment policies and insight into a number of related issues.
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