A cohort model for predicting retention of regular Marine Corps officers
McAfee, Carlos Kay
Marshall, Kneale T.
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A model for predicting retention of regular Marine Corps officers is formulated. Using data from the three cohorts 1956 - 58, a statistical test is used to show that the lifetimes on active duty of members of each cohort follow the same distribution. Unknown parameters for this distribution are estimated from the data. Retention figures for various lengths of service of the cohorts 1959 - 63 are calculated with the model and compared with actual data. Confidence intervals for the predictions are given. Use of the model and follow-on studies are suggested and examples given.
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