Delay analysis of Pacific Fleet Underway Replenishments
Douglas, Carlysle Arden
Milch, Paul R.
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An operational analysis of the delays incurred in Underway Replenishments of the Pacific Fleet, December, 1967 - April, 1969, is conducted. Twenty specific delays are analyzed from the UNREP data of which more than 80%, was from UNREPs conducted in Southeast Asia by supply ships providing logistic support to naval units engaged in combat operations. Delay occurrence distributions are derived; delay time distributions are derived, and tested for goodness-of-fit with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Delay as a function of the following UNREP attributes is analyzed: supply ship class, receiver ship type, time: day or night, location: EASTPAC or WESTPAC, simultaneous receivers or a single receiver, delivery method, product delivered, length of supply ship deployment, and weather. Hypothesis testing of delay occurrence parameters for UNREP attributes is done, and causes of delays are discussed. A method, based on the use of conditional probabilities and Bayes' Theorem, of predicting a delay occurrence prior to an UNREP when the UNREP attributes are known is presented
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