Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting. Part I: Environmental Structure Characteristics
Boothe, Mark A.
Carr, Lester E., III
Elsberry, Russell L.
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The environment structure conceptual models of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting technique of Carr and Elsberry are applied to all Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones during January 1994 - June 1997. Whereas three of the four synoptic patterns from the western North Pacific could be applied with relatively small modifications, a new High (H) amplitude synoptic pattern was defined to classify the situations with large meridional penetrations of mid-latitude troughs deep into the Southern Hemisphere tropics. Some changes in terminology were required to describe the synoptic regions that have characteristic track directions. All 1592 cases during the period could be described by these four synoptic patterns and 11 synoptic regions. Important track changes were found to be associated with transitions between these synoptic patterns and regions. Three binary tropical cyclone interactions defined for the Western North Pacific were adapted for use in the Southern Hemisphere with considerable success. A preliminary climatology of occurrences for the synoptic pattern/region combinations, ions, transitions between combinations, and binary tropical cyclone interactions are calculated. Sequences of synoptic analyses related to these transitions are described to aid in theapplication.
NPS Report NumberNPS-MR-98-001
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Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting. Part II: Climatology and Refinement of Meteorological Knowledge Base Bannister, Anthony J.; Boothe, Mark A.; Carr, Lester E., III; Elsberry, Russell L. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1998); NPS-MR-98-004The preliminary adaptation by Bannister et al. (1997) of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting meteorological knowledge base to the Southern Hemisphere has been extended to eight seasons (1990-91 ...
Atlantic application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting. Part I environmental structure characteristics Boothe, Mark A.; Elsberry, Russell L.; Carr, Lester E., III (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2000); NPS-MR-00-003This Meteorological knowledge base for application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the Atlantic basin follows from similar knowledge bases previously developed for the western North ...
Kent, Christopher S. T. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1995);A Systematic Approach for tropical cyclone track forecasting was introduced in 1994 by Carr and Elsberry to help forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Guam. The author was trained in the Systematic Approach ...