Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting. Part II: Climatology and Refinement of Meteorological Knowledge Base
Bannister, Anthony J.
Boothe, Mark A.
Carr, Lester E., III
Elsberry, Russell L.
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The preliminary adaptation by Bannister et al. (1997) of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting meteorological knowledge base to the Southern Hemisphere has been extended to eight seasons (1990-91 through 1997-98), which includes 145 (90) cyclones in the South Indian (Pacific) region. A total of 3257 synoptic pattern/region classifications could be described in the context of only four synoptic patterns and 11 synoptic regions. Updated track summaries in each pattern/region combination, and the recurring (more than three) environment structure transitions are provided. Refinements in the set of TC-environment transitional mechanisms in the meteorological knowledge base include: (1) new Equatorial Westerly Wind Burst Mechanism; (2) new semi-direct TC interaction equatorward conceptual model; (3) additional variations of the Subtropical Ridge Modulation mechanisms; and (4) further cases of Vertical Wind Shear leading to dramatic TC track changes. These refinements are illustrated with case studies intended to assist the forecaster in recognizing these transitional mechanisms, and thus anticipating TC track changes in the Southern Hemisphere.
The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not reflect the offical policy or position of the Department of Defense.
NPS Report NumberNPS-MR-98-004
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