Human Factors in the Joint Typhoon Warning Center Watch Floor
MetadataShow full item record
This study evaluates the task and support environments associated with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) watch floor and provides recommendations to improve forecast accuracy. The principal findings indicate that, at this time, factors in the task environment are very likely limiting forecast accuracy. In particular, system-induced practical and cognitive limits on the forecaster’s repeatability, i.e., the ability to reproduce an identical forecast given identical information, limits forecast accuracy. Thus, forecasters’ performance and forecast accuracy could be enhanced by an information integration system with recommended features, by more precise standard operating procedures, and by training and feedback better matched to the task. Further studies are also recommended.
Revised November 2012.
NPS Report NumberNPS-OR-11-003Rev.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Objective identification of environmental patterns related to tropical cyclone track forecast errors Sanabia, Elizabeth R. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2006-09);The increase in skill of numerical model guidance and the use of consensus forecast techniques have led to significant improvements in the accuracy of tropical cyclone track forecasts at ranges beyond 72 h. Identification ...
Application of the Navy's numerical hurricane and typhoon forecast scheme to 1967 Atlantic tropical-storm data Renard, Robert Joseph (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1969-03-15); NPS-51RD9031ARenard recently reported on a numerical scheme for predicting the motion of tropical storms for intervals up to 72 hours. The forecast technique is applied in two steps. First, numerical geostrophic steering of the cyclone ...
The Navy's Numerical Hurricane and Typhoon Forecast Scheme: Application to 1967 Atlantic Storm Data Renard, Robert J.; Levings, William H. (1969-10);Renard recently reported (Monthly Weather Revie:w, July 1968) on the development of a numerical scheme for predicting the motion of tropical storms for periods up to three days. An extension of the forecast scheme, as ...