An analysis of the effect of commissioning sources on retention and promotion of U.S. Army officers

Abstract

This thesis analyzes the effects of commissioning sources on the retention and promotion of U S Army officers The data in this thesis were taken from the Active Duty Military Master File, with separate data sets for cohorts commissioned from 1981 through 2001 We describe three logistic regression models: Retention to the Grade of O-4, Promotion to O-4, and Promotion to O-5 We conclude that Academy graduates have the lowest retention rates, whereas OCS graduates have the highest retention rates Among male officers, retention rates are higher for ROTC graduates than for those with Direct Appointments; among female officers retention rates are higher for Direct Appointments than ROTC graduates The Promotion to O-4 Model indicates that the effect of commissioning source is different within gender, race and marital status groups The results of the promotion to O-5 model contrasts with those of the O-4 models Academy graduates are more likely to be promoted to Lieutenant Colonel than those from other sources, followed by ROTC graduates and then Direct Appointments The effects of the Army's reduction in force ("drawdown") between 1989 and 1996 are not accounted for in this thesis as they cannot be modeled with the data at hand.