Further verifications of and experiments to improve the MODIFIED HATRACK scheme for forecasting the motion of tropical cyclones
furtherverificat00colg.pdf (2.989Mb)Abstract
The MODIFIED HATRACK (MODHATR) scheme for forecasting tropical cyclone motion consists of a numerical steering component using geostrophic winds derived from Fleet Numerical Weather Central's SR height field to steer the storm center, and a statistical modification component to correct for bias and improve forecast accuracy. MODHATR forecasts from the 1969 and 1970 North Atlantic hurricane seasons are analyzed, and average errors presented and compared to earlier years' results. MODHATR forecasts are shown to be superior on the average to OFFICIAL forecasts, NHC-67, and TYRACK forecast schemes for forecast intervals to 48 hours, with relative accuracy of MODHATR decreasing with time. Results of an experiment to improve the statistical correction for bias are reported. A level- and mode-selection scheme is investigated which offers some promise of improving forecast accuracy at late forecast intervals. A comparison is made between warning-time and synoptic-time initial-position errors showing synoptic-time positions to be more accurate for initiating MODHATR forecasts.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.Collections
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
Application of the Navy's numerical hurricane and typhoon forecast scheme to 1967 Atlantic tropical-storm data
(Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1969-03-15); NPS-51RD9031ARenard recently reported on a numerical scheme for predicting the motion of tropical storms for intervals up to 72 hours. The forecast technique is applied in two steps. First, numerical geostrophic steering of the cyclone ... -
Statistical post-processing of the navy nested tropical cyclone model and the operational tropical cyclone model : final report for period October 1980-September 1981
(Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1981); NPS-63-81-003A statistical technique proposed by Elsberry and Frill (1980) for adjusting dynamical tropical cyclone motion forecasts is extended to the Two-Way Interactive Nested Tropical Cyclone Model (NTCM) and the operational ... -
Development, implementation and evaluation of a data-assimilative ocean forecasting system off the central California coast
(Elsevier, 2009);The development and implementation of a real-time ocean forecast system based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) off the coast of central California are described. The ROMS configuration consists of three nested ...
