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dc.contributor.advisorRenard, R. J.
dc.contributor.authorColgan, Stephen Gregory
dc.dateSeptember 1971
dc.date.accessioned2012-11-13T23:24:02Z
dc.date.available2012-11-13T23:24:02Z
dc.date.issued1971-09
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/15729
dc.description.abstractThe MODIFIED HATRACK (MODHATR) scheme for forecasting tropical cyclone motion consists of a numerical steering component using geostrophic winds derived from Fleet Numerical Weather Central's SR height field to steer the storm center, and a statistical modification component to correct for bias and improve forecast accuracy. MODHATR forecasts from the 1969 and 1970 North Atlantic hurricane seasons are analyzed, and average errors presented and compared to earlier years' results. MODHATR forecasts are shown to be superior on the average to OFFICIAL forecasts, NHC-67, and TYRACK forecast schemes for forecast intervals to 48 hours, with relative accuracy of MODHATR decreasing with time. Results of an experiment to improve the statistical correction for bias are reported. A level- and mode-selection scheme is investigated which offers some promise of improving forecast accuracy at late forecast intervals. A comparison is made between warning-time and synoptic-time initial-position errors showing synoptic-time positions to be more accurate for initiating MODHATR forecasts.en_US
dc.description.urihttp://archive.org/details/furtherverificat1094515729
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherMonterey, California; Naval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.rightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.en_US
dc.subject.lcshMeteorologyen_US
dc.titleFurther verifications of and experiments to improve the MODIFIED HATRACK scheme for forecasting the motion of tropical cyclonesen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dc.contributor.corporateNaval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
dc.contributor.departmentDepartment of Meteorology
dc.subject.authorMODIFIED HATRACKen_US
dc.subject.authorHATRACKen_US
dc.subject.authorForecasting hurricane movementen_US
dc.subject.authorTropical cyclonesen_US
dc.subject.authorAtlantic hurricanesen_US
dc.subject.authorHurricanesen_US
dc.description.serviceLieutenant, United States Navyen_US
etd.thesisdegree.nameM.S. in Meteorologyen_US
etd.thesisdegree.levelMastersen_US
etd.thesisdegree.disciplineMeteorologyen_US
etd.thesisdegree.grantorNaval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.description.distributionstatementApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited.


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