An exploratory analysis of convoy protection using agent-based simulation
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Authors
Hakola, Matthew B.
Subjects
Convoy operations
Agent-based models
Agent based distillations
MANA
Project Albert
Design of experiment
Latin hypercube
Additive multiple linear regression
Agent-based models
Agent based distillations
MANA
Project Albert
Design of experiment
Latin hypercube
Additive multiple linear regression
Advisors
Lucas, Thomas
Date of Issue
2004-06
Date
June 2004
Publisher
Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Recent insurgent tactics during Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) have demonstrated that coalition logistical convoys are vulnerable targets. This thesis examines the tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) used in convoy operations in an attempt to identify the critical factors that lead to mission success. A ground convoy operation scenario is created in the agentbased model (ABM) Map Aware Non-uniform Automata (MANA). The scenario models a generic logistical convoy consisting of security vehicles, logistical vehicles, an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and an enemy ambushing force. The convoy travels along a main supply route (MSR) where it is ambushed by a small insurgent force. We use military experience, judgment and exploratory simulation runs to identify 11 critical factors within the created scenario. The data farming process and Latin Hypercube (LHC) experimental design technique are used to thoroughly examine the 11 factors. Using the 11 factors 516 design points are created and data farmed over to produce 25,800 observations. Additive multiple linear regression is used to fit a model to the 25,800 observations. From the created scenario it is concluded that: convoy mission success may be determined by only a few factors; the actions of logistical vehicles are more critical than those of security vehicles; UAVs provide a statistically significant advantage; and ABMs coupled with LHCs and data farming are valuable tools for understanding complex problems.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Department of Operations Research
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
xxiv, 94 p. : ill. (some col.)
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.