Naval Postgraduate School
Theses and Dissertations
Now showing items 1-10 of 66
Relating tropical cyclone track forecast error distributions with measurements of forecast uncertainty
(Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2016-03)
Tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts will always contain uncertainty. This thesis relates ranges (bins) of uncertainty measurements with historical TC track forecast errors, to provide statistically distinct error ...
AN EVALUATION OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE MERGED CLOUD ANALYSES FROM THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE CLOUD DEPICTION FORECASTING SYSTEM II
(Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2013-03)
Data from the CloudSat cloud profiling radar was used to verify the performance, or operational health, of the United States Air Forces World Wide Merged Cloud Analysis (WWMCA) system to detect clouds. WWMCA performance ...
MESOSCALE SIMULATIONS OF COASTAL CIRCULATIONS EVALUATED USING MEASUREMENTS FROM A DENSE MESO NETWORK
(Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2013-03)
This research focuses on the evaluation of a mesoscale model in simulating coastal sea-breeze circulations. Measurements for this purpose were made from a mesonetwork consisting of 36 towers and five Doppler Wind Profilers ...
LONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE KOREAN PENINSULA
(Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2013-03)
We have designed, developed, and tested a long-range forecasting system for producing forecasts of surface air temperatures and precipitation rates in the Korean Peninsula region at leads of two months for each calendar ...
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS AND THEIR ROLE IN EXTREME PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDWEST U.S.
(Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2013-03)
Two case studies are presented of atmospheric rivers (ARs) that produced heavy precipitation in the Midwest U.S. during March 2008 and October 2009. A third case study demonstrating an AR with normal precipitation in the ...
A FURTHER EXAMINATION OF POTENTIAL OBSERVATION NETWORK DESIGN WITH MESOSCALE ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITIES IN COMPLEX TERRAIN
(Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2013-03)
Recent expansion in availability of stand-alone atmospheric observing sensors introduces the question of where placement maximizes gain in forecast accuracy. This study examined how sensitivity analysis and observation ...
A Verification Of Aerosol Optical Depth Retrieval Using The Terra Satellite
(Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2012-06)
A method for sensing retrieval of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) was investigated by Vincent (2006). This technique is known as the Shadow Method. Using high-resolution commercial satellite imagery, Vincent was able to calculate ...
Statistical Analysis of Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the North Atlantic
(Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2012-06)
The skill of individual ensemble prediction systems (EPS) is evaluated in terms of the probability of a tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast being within an expected area. Anisotropic probability ellipses are defined from ...
Evaluation of Non-convective Wind Forecasting Methods in the 15th Operational Weather Squadron Area of Responsibility
(Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2012-03)
Predicting critical wind thresholds for non-convective wind events is a challenge for todays operational forecasters. This study evaluates two different methods to forecasting non-convective wind gusts of 35 knots at five ...
A Statistical Multimodel Ensemble Approach to Improving Long-Range Forecasting in Pakistan
(Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2012-03)
We have designed, developed, and tested a method for generating long-range forecasting systems for predicting environmental conditions at intraseasonal to seasonal lead times (lead times of several weeks to several seasons). ...
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