Naval Postgraduate School
Dudley Knox Library
NPS Dudley Knox Library
View Item 
  •   Calhoun Home
  • Theses and Dissertations
  • 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items
  • View Item
  •   Calhoun Home
  • Theses and Dissertations
  • 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items
  • View Item
  • How to search in Calhoun
  • My Accounts
  • Ask a Librarian
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

Browse

All of CalhounCollectionsThis Collection

My Account

LoginRegister

Statistics

Most Popular ItemsStatistics by CountryMost Popular Authors

Forecasting the motion of northeastern Pacific tropical cyclones.

Thumbnail
Download
Iconforecastingmotio00free.pdf (3.051Mb)
Download Record
Download to EndNote/RefMan (RIS)
Download to BibTex
Author
Freeman, David Lansing.
Date
1972-03
Advisor
Renard, Robert J.
Metadata
Show full item record
Abstract
Several operational methods of forecasting the motion of tropical cyclones over the northeast Pacific Ocean area are evaluated for three 1970 and nine 1971 hurricanes. OFFICIAL forecast accuracy is shown to excel that of TYRACK (1971 only) and HATRACK (both years). The MODIFIED HATRACK (MOD-HATR) forecast scheme developed by the Navy in Monterey, California, comprising a numerical steering component (HATRACK) and a statistical modification (correction for bias in HATRACK) is applied to the same 1970-71 operational data, with the result that the MODHATR accuracy, using 850-mb steering, is shown to be superior to HATRACK and TYRACK while only slightly inferior to the OFFICIAL forecasts. Specifically, MODHATR forecast accuracy lies in the range 7 to 5 kt for 12 to 72 hour forecasts, respectively, while the ratios of OFFICIAL to MODHATR errors range from 1 to .7 in 1970 for forecasts 12 to 48 hours and from .9 to .8 in 1971 for 12 to 72 hour forecasts, respectively. The number of 1970 forecasts evaluated in the test averaged 35 per forecast interval while the 1971 forecast sample ranged from 160 at 12 hours to 45 at 72 hours.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10945/16151
Collections
  • 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items

Related items

Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.

  • Thumbnail

    A numerical scheme for the prediction of hurricane and typhoon movement 

    Renard, Robert J. (1967-12);
    The vector motion of severe tropical cyclones (including storm, hurricane/typhoon stages) is forecasted by a numerical scheme which involves two steps: a . Numerical geostrophic steering of the center of the cyclone using ...
  • Thumbnail

    The Navy's Numerical Hurricane and Typhoon Forecast Scheme: Application to 1967 Atlantic Storm Data 

    Renard, Robert J.; Levings, William H. (1969-10);
    Renard recently reported (Monthly Weather Revie:w, July 1968) on the development of a numerical scheme for predicting the motion of tropical storms for periods up to three days. An extension of the forecast scheme, as ...
  • Thumbnail

    Application of the Navy's numerical hurricane and typhoon forecast scheme to 1967 Atlantic tropical-storm data 

    Renard, Robert Joseph (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1969-03-15); NPS-51RD9031A
    Renard recently reported on a numerical scheme for predicting the motion of tropical storms for intervals up to 72 hours. The forecast technique is applied in two steps. First, numerical geostrophic steering of the cyclone ...
NPS Dudley Knox LibraryDUDLEY KNOX LIBRARY
Feedback

411 Dyer Rd. Bldg. 339
Monterey, CA 93943
circdesk@nps.edu
(831) 656-2947
DSN 756-2947

    Federal Depository Library      


Start Your Research

Research Guides
Academic Writing
Ask a Librarian
Copyright at NPS
Graduate Writing Center
How to Cite
Library Liaisons
Research Tools
Thesis Processing Office

Find & Download

Databases List
Articles, Books & More
NPS Theses
NPS Faculty Publications: Calhoun
Journal Titles
Course Reserves

Use the Library

My Accounts
Request Article or Book
Borrow, Renew, Return
Tech Help
Remote Access
Workshops & Tours

For Faculty & Researchers
For International Students
For Alumni

Print, Copy, Scan, Fax
Rooms & Study Spaces
Floor Map
Computers & Software
Adapters, Lockers & More

Collections

NPS Archive: Calhoun
Restricted Resources
Special Collections & Archives
Federal Depository
Homeland Security Digital Library

About

Hours
Library Staff
About Us
Special Exhibits
Policies
Our Affiliates
Visit Us

NPS-Licensed Resources—Terms & Conditions
Copyright Notice

Naval Postgraduate School

Naval Postgraduate School
1 University Circle, Monterey, CA 93943
Driving Directions | Campus Map

This is an official U.S. Navy Website |  Please read our Privacy Policy Notice  |  FOIA |  Section 508 |  No FEAR Act |  Whistleblower Protection |  Copyright and Accessibility |  Contact Webmaster

Export search results

The export option will allow you to export the current search results of the entered query to a file. Different formats are available for download. To export the items, click on the button corresponding with the preferred download format.

A logged-in user can export up to 15000 items. If you're not logged in, you can export no more than 500 items.

To select a subset of the search results, click "Selective Export" button and make a selection of the items you want to export. The amount of items that can be exported at once is similarly restricted as the full export.

After making a selection, click one of the export format buttons. The amount of items that will be exported is indicated in the bubble next to export format.