Using agent-based modeling to examine the logistical chain of the seabase

Abstract

This thesis examines a 2015 Marine Expeditionary Brigade scheme of maneuver as the baseline scenario for a commercial logistics support software program called SEAWAY. Modifications to this scenario are conducted using a designed experiment in order to explore how the plan characteristics relate to eleven specified input factors. Multiple regression analysis is used to fit models to the resulting data for three different measures of performance: Total Aircraft Sorties, Total Aircraft Sortie Time and Total Aircraft Tons. The results suggest the plan performance is predicted well by a small subset of the factors and their interactions. One implication of this work is a better understanding of which factors are key determinants of the plan characteristics for variations on this specific base scenario. By using these fitted models, the number of SEAWAY runs needed to identify acceptable plans should decrease dramatically. The approach in this thesis provides a blueprint for similar analyses of other scenarios by demonstrating how information gained from models fit during an exploration phase might allow the logistician to quickly determine factor settings that yield an acceptable plan once details of an operation become available. Finally, working with the SEAWAY developers provided them with some new insights.