Development and application of an analog scheme for predicting the intensification of Western North Pacific tropical cyclones
Foster, Kent William
Renard, Robert J.
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Various meteorological parameters were examined to determine their predictive value for forecasting intensity changes of Western North Pacific tropical cyclones using an analog forecast scheme. A number of procedures were devised to quantitatively define the forecast potentials of these parameters in a systematic method. Based on the results of these procedures, predictors for the 24-hour, 48-hour, and 72-hour forecast periods were defined. To evaluate the skill of the predictors and the procedures used to define them, an analog intensification forecast scheme was developed and applied to a number of test cyclones. The results of these forecasts were compared to the acceptability criteria established by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Guam and to official forecasts issued by this activity.
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