Evaluation of the Fleet Numerical Weather Central operational primitive-equation model in forecasting extratropical cyclogenesis.
Klopfenstein, Timothy David
Tracton, M. Steven
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This paper describes an attempt to find systematic errors in the 12, 24 and 36-hour sea-level pressure forecasts of extratropical cyclogenesis produced by the operational five-layer primitive-equation model of the Fleet Numerical Weather Central, Monterey, California. The sample of cases studied contained 488 cases for the 12-hour, 484 cases for the 24- hour, and 446 cases for the 36-hour verifying times. The sample was extracted from the storm season spanning the period October 1971 through March 1972. Several systematic errors exist. They are: 1) an underforecast of the deepening rate in a majority of cases; 2) a tendency to greatly underforecast the deepening rate in the 12-hour prognoses and then to under forecast to a lesser degree or overforecast the subsequent 12-hour changes; 3) ; a tendency to forecast the track to the right of the actual track; and 4) a tendency to forecast the 36-hour position to the south and west of actual position. When compared to the National Meteorological Center's six-layer primitive-equation model, Fleet Numerical Weather Central's model showed comparable or superior performance.
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