A simulation model of microbiological laboratory procedures
Armstrong, Tommy Stephen
Zweig, Hans J.
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Laboratory procedures, mathematical theory and distribution assumptions associated with two microbiological testing techniques are presented. A computer simulation model is then formulated and programmed based on these procedures, and thus the influences of changes in the number of microorganisms per sample, distribution of microorganisms within the sample, number of positive groups, probability of "false positives", distribution of "false positives" and technician analysis times are determined. Using the basic simulation model as an experimental device, an example is presented to demonstrate its use in estimating the total time required to analyze a sample using each of the two procedures. Five variations of the basic model are presented to demonstrate tlie model ' s flexibility and sensitivity to fixing individual parameters. Hypothesis testing is conducted on data obtained with the basic model and five variations. A significant Z value was obtained with variation two in which the probability of a false positive was set at zero. Results of all hypothesis testing are presented and a discussion of model data application in cost analysis is appended.
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