Swell prediction by a multiple point-source swell generation model

Abstract

A method was developed for forecasting swell using a spectral wave-generation model based on a multiple point-source concept of swell origin. The multiple point-source concept considers that the peak-energy swell emanating from a moving cyclonic storm can be considered to have been produced at one or more space- time point sources in the storm by the impulsive introduction of energy into the sea. The method was tested on five North Pacific storms generating swell recorded at Monterey, California. Predicted swell heights, which were made for two storms, were significantly lower than the observed heights. The time of occurrence of the predicted peak height agreed with that observed for the swell from one storm, but differed by about ten hours for the other. Predictions of the dominant swell period were accurate to within about one second over the entire range of observed periods for all storms.