Typhoon and tropical storm intensity forecasts using statistical regression equations
Coltrane, Glenn Gray
Elsberry, Russell L.
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Statistical regression equations were derived to predict future 24-hour changes in intensity of tropical storms and typhoons in the western North Pacific. The predictors were chosen from 55 parameters available at six-hourly observations of tropical storms and typhoons during the period 1960-1969. The dependent data were composited into six categories: east-west moving storms, recurving storms, and all storms within latitude bands 0-9.9N, 10-19N, 20-29N, and 30-39N. The forecast equations were evaluated on a five-year (19550`959_ sample of independent data and compared to the forecast verification scheme employed by Fleet Weather Center/joint Typhoon Warning Center. Two five-predictor equations, which require only 12 hours of history, can predict intensity for the majority of storms within the period July-September, and give significantly better results than current intensity forecast methods.
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