Analysis of data describing Congressional responses to DOD budget requests
Capra, James Robert
Gaver, D. P.
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This thesis represents an attempt to characterize Congressional Appropriations for Defense procurement and research and development between 1953 and 1973. The approach used involves formulating alternative models of appropriations as a percentage of requests and deriving point and interval estimates for parameters using robust statistical procedures. The results of the analysis lest support to the hypothesis that the response of the Congress to Defense procurement and research and development budget requests has changed considerably, starting in fiscal 1969 and that Air Force received uniquely favorable action of its research and development budget requests in the 1957-1969 time period. The first chapter explores the institutional setting of Defense budgeting, from the budget prepreparation stage through the audit stage. In Chapter II, alternative models are formulated for appropriation as a percentage of requests, parameters are estimated using least squares, and residuals are analyzed. The following two chapters explore the advantages of robust alternatives to least squares and include point and interval estimates for the parameters of the models of Chapter II. The final chapter includes (I) an examination, using Monte Carlo techniques, of the the operating characteristics of the statistical procedures employed in earlier chapters and (ii) a discussion of the results of dividing the data by groups of years and by service.
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