Updating the Navy's recruit quality matrix an analysis of educational credentials and the success of first-term sailors

Abstract

This thesis analyzes the impact of different educational credentials on first-term attrition by enlisted sailors in the U.S. Navy. For enlistment screening, the Navy currently categorizes applicants in one of three tiers according to educational attainment. These tiers form the basis of the Recruit Quality Matrix, which employs Armed Forces Qualification Test scores and educational credentials to determine enlistment eligibility. The analysis draws primarily from two sources: a Defense Manpower Data Center file containing enlisted cohorts from fiscal years 1989 through 1997 (to assess first-term attrition), and a Commander, Navy Recruiting Command data base containing enlisted cohorts from fiscal years 1998 through 2003 (to examine bootcamp attrition). Logit regression models are constructed using these data to identify differences in attrition propensities within the general tiers. A refined matrix is designed and evaluated as a more accurate predictor of attrition. Further research is recommended to look at additional measures of success in service, such as performance, productivity, and promotion.