Forecasting Northeastern Pacific tropical cyclone tracks using an analog scheme.
forecastingnorth00mauc.pdf (2.205Mb)Abstract
The NEPHAT (Northeastern Pacific Hurricane Analog
Tracker) Forecast Program is developed and introduced.
NEPHAT selects analog tropical cyclones from 25-year
Northeastern Pacific Ocean history. Each selected analog
track is statistically adjusted for known differences
between it and the recent history of the tropical cyclone
being forecasted. The adjusted analog cyclone trajectories
are then composited into a single forecast track. Verification
results are shown for randomly selected historical
cases, with a Monte Carlo simulation of initial operational
position inaccuracies. Intercomparisons of forecasts made
by NEPHAT and other objective and subjective forecast
schemes are presented.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.Collections
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