Forecasting Northeastern Pacific tropical cyclone tracks using an analog scheme.
Mauck, Charles Joel III
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The NEPHAT (Northeastern Pacific Hurricane Analog Tracker) Forecast Program is developed and introduced. NEPHAT selects analog tropical cyclones from 25-year Northeastern Pacific Ocean history. Each selected analog track is statistically adjusted for known differences between it and the recent history of the tropical cyclone being forecasted. The adjusted analog cyclone trajectories are then composited into a single forecast track. Verification results are shown for randomly selected historical cases, with a Monte Carlo simulation of initial operational position inaccuracies. Intercomparisons of forecasts made by NEPHAT and other objective and subjective forecast schemes are presented.
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Jarrell, J.D.; Mauck, C.J.; Renard, R.J. (1975-08);The Navy's EPANALOG (Northeastern Pacifi.c Analog Tropical Cyclone Tracker) f~recast prog~am is introduced. EP ANALOG selects analog tropical cyclones from a 25-year northeastern Pa~fi.c Ocean history. The selected analog ...
Comparison of western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone aids using storm-related and synoptic parameters. Jones, Henry (1986-12);The performance of four western North Pacific Ocean objective aids (One-way influence Tropical Cyclone Model-OTCM; Recurver analog-REC; Total analog-TOTL; and 500 mb steering-CY50) is evaluated using mean forecast error ...
The Navy's Analog Scheme for Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Motion over the Northeastern Pacific Ocean Jarrell, Jerry D.; Mauck, Charles J.; Renard, Robert J. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1975-03); Technical Paper No. 6-75The Navy's EPANALOG (Northeastern Pacific Analog Tropical Cyclone Tracker) forecast program is introduced. EPANALOG selects analog tropical cyclones from a 25-year Northeastern Pacific Ocean history. The selected analog ...