A risk and comparative analysis of aircraft accident data
Burin, James Michael
Stephan, Robert A.
Esary, James D.
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Aircraft accident data was analyzed to investigate the differences in risk of Naval aircraft and to develop some overall risk measure. To analyze risk, a flight was divided into four risk areas; takeoff, inflight, transistion, and landing. Accidents were assumed to occur according to a Poisson process and tests were carried out to prove the validity of the Poisson assumption. The Poisson model yielded two factors , the exposure to the risk areas and the performance in them, which were used to construct a risk measure and to explain the differences in the present accident rates. A procedure to predict risk was developed. A statistic, improvement index, was developed to allow a direct comparison between different types of aircraft with respect to safety performance with differences in risk taken into account. Another statistic, weighted improvement index, is proposed to provide insight into where the primary positive and negative contributions to Naval aviation safety are made in any given year. The aircraft studied were the major Naval operational and training aircraft, and the period of primary interest was fiscal year 1969 through fiscal year 1973.
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