A Comparison of Earned Value and Earned Schedule Duration Forecast Methods on Department of Defense Major Defense Acquisition Programs

Abstract

Earned value management is a project management tool that integrates project scope with cost, schedule, and performance elements for optimum project planning and control. Earned value management is required by the Department of Defense for cost and incentive type contracts equal or greater than $20 million as part of a comprehensive approach to improving critical acquisitions. It is used to forecast the programs schedule performance using cost-based indicators but not time-based indicators. Earned value management has been used since the early 1960s as a program management tool, but is viewed by some professionals as incomplete when predicting schedule performance values. An extension of earned value management, called earned schedule, was introduced in 2003 as a tool to more accurately estimate schedule performance using time indicators that is lacking in traditional earned value management estimates. Earned schedule uses standard earned value management performance indicator values and time-based equations to depict the schedule performance. This research project measured the accuracy of earned value and earned schedule final duration forecast methods by analyzing four U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency programs.