Using a Dynamic Retention Model to Analyze the Impact of Aviation Career Continuation Pay on the Retention of Naval Aviators
Mislick, Gregory K.
Buttrey, Samuel E.
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The United States military is not immune to the effects of the current recession. Many areas of military compensation are being considered for reduction and elimination in order to alleviate budget constraints throughout the federal government. Questions have arisen regarding the degree to which retention goals would be met if special bonus pay programs were reduced or eliminated. Mattock and Arkes (2007) claimed success with predicting the retention of Air Force pilots by using their Dynamic Retention Model (DRM). This thesis utilizes the DRM, coded for R by Mattock and Arkes, to create a simulation of Naval aviator retention at different bonus amounts. The model predicted a 75.2 per cent retention rate with a bonus of $25,000 per year for five years, a retention rate of 64.3 per cent with a bonus of $15,000 per year for five years, and a retention rate of 50.6 per cent with a bonus of $5,000 per year. It predicted that only 14 Naval Aviators (0.46 per cent) would remain past their minimum service requirement if the bonus were discontinued. A critique of the DRM is that it is an econometric approach that leaves out other factors. A logistic regression with demographic variables was found to be better for predicting retention decisions.
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