Demographics, economics, and the Soviet Armed Forces : implications for U.S. national security policy.
Hasson, Neil F.
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This thesis examines the economic, political, and military implications of rapidly changing demographic trends in the Soviet Union, with particular emphasis upon manpower issues. The analysis offers a number of forecasts concerning the likely direction of future military and economic policy in the training and utilization of Soviet manpower resources. The hypothesis offered is that demographic variables will act to reduce the quality, effectiveness, reliability, and motivation of the Soviet Armed Forces. Although reductions in the size of the military force are not forecasted, demographic realities will impose formidable constraints upon any attempts at force expansion for the remainder of the century. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of national security considerations for both the U.S. and the U.S.S.R.
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