Understanding Indian insurgencies implications for counterinsurgency operations in the Third World
Mitra, D. M.
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There has been a resurgence of indigenous Maoist insurgencies in the South/South East Asia region in the recent past. Left unchecked, these developments can have significant implications for the Global War on Terror. Third World countries have inherited many attributes from their colonial past which make them susceptible to insurgency. These factors, which are typical of the Third World, limit even the capacity of democratic states to mitigate divisive tendencies. This paper analyzes the susceptibility of Third World countries to insurgency and develops a theoretical perspective to illuminate some of the factors contributing to insurgency in these countries. A simple linear model for India is developed, based on the hypothesis that the degree of inaccessibility of an area, the strength of separate social identity of its population, and the amount of external unifying influence on the area determine the propensity of that area for insurgency. The model is empirically verified for the entire country by comparing data from India's 528 parliamentary constituencies. The implications of the Indian model for some competing ideas about appropriate counterinsurgency strategy for the Third World countries are discussed.
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