A statistical analysis of the effectiveness of program initial conditions as predictors of weapon system acquisition program success
Henry, Douglas Davies
Eoyang, Carson K.
Sovereign, Michael G.
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This thesis examines the relationship between weapon system acquisition program's initial conditions (project size, technical risk and program length) and program outcomes in the areas of cost, performance and schedule. The study employs a nonparametric correlation procedure and Mann-Whitney U Tests as the principal analytic tools of the examination process. The results of the analysis indicate that a definite relationship between cost/schedule growth and program size exists. In a significant number of cases, large programs incurred greater absolute cost growth with less schedule slippage than did programs of smaller size. The variance in project technical performance is largely unexplained by the methodology, although there are indications that it is related inversely to program length.
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