Stochastic and simulation models of maritime intercept operations capabilities
Jacobs, Patricia A.
Gaver, Donald P.
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The research formulates and exercises stochastic and simulation models to assess the Maritime Intercept Operations (MIO) capabilities. The models focus on the surveillance operations of the Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA). The analysis using the models estimates the probability with which a terrorist vessel (Red) is detected, correctly classified, and escorted for intensive investigation and neutralization before it leaves an area of interest (AOI). The difficulty of obtaining adequate interception of the Red depends upon the AOI size, the number of neutral vessels in the AOI, detection and identification capabilities, information retention, and close coordination between the MPA and investigative maritime vessels in various situations. The analysis ultimately provides quantitative guidance on the relative importance of the MIO capabilities. Although the models focus on the MPA operations, the analysis additionally provides various insights and recommendations to other defense components.
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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