The Fast Theater Model (FATHM) Optimization of air-to-ground engagements as a defender-attacker model

Abstract

The FAst THeater Model (FATHM) is a joint theater-level attrition model that combines a Lanchester ground combat model with a linear program, hereafter the Air model, that determines the optimal allocation of air strikes against ground forces. FATHM models time phased ground battles between two forces BLUE and RED, and calls the Air model based on the outcomes of the most recent ground battle, assuming BLUE air supremacy. This thesis develops an enhanced Air model that endows RED with the ability to actively prepare for BLUE air attacks by deploying dummy targets and anti-aircraft artillery as two augmenting defense plans with the goal to more realistically reduce BLUE effectiveness in killing RED targets and simultaneously increase attrition to attacking BLUE aircraft. This Air model is a mixed integer program (MIP), a defender-attacker model, with RED as the defender and BLUE as the attacker. The MIP is a cost- and resource-interdicted model, combining interdiction-induced costs with restrictions on resources for some constraints. This new defender-attacker model provides an optimal defense plan by RED in anticipation of optimized BLUE air attacks without changing FATHMâ s basic concept or structure. We demonstrate defensive actions by RED that can significantly reduce the BLUE attackerâ s effectiveness.