The effects of military tactics, techniques and procedures on peace support election operations in representative Iraqi towns

Abstract

The complexity of Peace Support Operations (PSO) requires that a wide variety of aspects and possible effects be considered. Unlike traditional analysis of combat operations, the analysis of PSO aims at avoiding conflict situations, where losses or injuries are to be minimized for all participants involved. Election scenarios in a homogeneous (Sunni) and a heterogeneous (Sunni, Shiite/Kurd) populated representative Iraqi town are developed to evaluate and gain insights on the proposed military tactics, techniques and procedures for the PSO, which may affect the outcome of the election. An agent-based modeling platform designed specifically for PSO is used to model the evolving behavior of civilian individuals and their influences on the emerging behavior of groups. An efficient experimental design, with excellent space filling and orthogonality properties, is employed to gather data from the simulation over a broad variety of scenarios. The voter participation rates, escalation among civilians, and civilian-military interactions are the primary measures of effectiveness. The results indicate that several military measures contribute to a successful election. These include the execution of security control regions, the deployment of election booths intended to calm the crowd and encourage voter participation, and attempts to quell unrest by seeking the cooperation of civilian leaders. Factors such as soldiersâ rules of engagement, civilian fear and anger personalities and their variability also play important roles in the escalation or deescalation of civilian behavior.