An analysis and forecast of the supply of first term enlistees to the United States Marine Corps
Darling, Paul Parsons
Carrick, Paul M.
Richards, F. R.
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Two distinct analytical techniques were used to develop models in order to forecast monthly first term regular enlistments in the United States Marine Corps. A multiple regression model was derived based on its compatibility with a theory of occupational choice, the intuitive appeal of the explanatory variables, the past literature of manpower supply, and the statistical significance of each variable's impact on monthly enlistments. A second model was developed by applying the Box-Jenkins methodology to the time series of monthly enlistments spanning the period from July 1973 to June 1978. As a further refinement the residuals from the multiple regression equation were treated as an original time series and the Box-Jenkins technique applied to them. then the two models were combined and forecasts calculated.
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