An analysis and forecast of the supply of first term enlistees to the United States Marine Corps

Abstract

Two distinct analytical techniques were used to develop models in order to forecast monthly first term regular enlistments in the United States Marine Corps. A multiple regression model was derived based on its compatibility with a theory of occupational choice, the intuitive appeal of the explanatory variables, the past literature of manpower supply, and the statistical significance of each variable's impact on monthly enlistments. A second model was developed by applying the Box-Jenkins methodology to the time series of monthly enlistments spanning the period from July 1973 to June 1978. As a further refinement the residuals from the multiple regression equation were treated as an original time series and the Box-Jenkins technique applied to them. then the two models were combined and forecasts calculated.