Diagnostic verification of the GLAS general circulation model as applied to a case of extratropical maritime explosive cyclogenesis.
Ebersole, Kenneth A.
Wash, Carlyle H.
Elsberry, Russell L.
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The general circulation model from the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) is verified for a case of explosive extratropical cyclogenesis in the North Pacific. Model runs are initialized with GLAS analyses based on the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) Level Ill-b data. Mass and vorticity budget studies are performed on two separate sets of forecasts. One set (SAT) was initialized with all available FGGE data, while the other (NOSAT) was initialized with all FGGE data except satellite data. Explosive development occurs in conjunction with zonal mid-level flow and strong jet streak interaction. The inclusion of underestimated satellite winds in the SAT initial field weakened the intensity of the jet stream and adversely affected the forecasts. The NOSAT run indicated greater surface convergence, divergence aloft, vertical motion and PVA than the SAT run. The NOSAT prognoses developed and positioned the storm more accurately than the SAT prognoses.
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