A complex adaptive system approach to forecasting hurricane tracks
Lear, Matthew R.
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, for the life of the storm, perform the best in terms of the distance between forecast and best-track positions. A TAF forecast is developed using a linear combination of the highest weighted predictors. When applied to the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season, the TAF system with a requirement to contain a minimum of three predictors, consistently outperformed, although not statistically significant, the CONU forecast at 72 and 96 hours for a homogeneous data set. At 120 hours, the TAF system significantly decreased the average forecast errors when compared to the CONU. The multi-agent (MAS) system approach opens the door for statistically significant forecast improvement.
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