An examination of high quality enlistees on a Recruiting district level.

Abstract

Two distinct analytical techniques were used to develop nodels to forecast the number of high quality non prior service nales enlisting monthly in the U.S. Navy on a recruiting district level. The Box-Jenkins methodology was applied to a monthly time series of enlistments for the period Octcter 1978 to September 1983. A multiple regression causal model vas developed rased on the explanitory variables: numbers of unemployed, change in the rate of unemployment and military/civilian pay ratio. A combined time series/causal model was developed by applying the Eox-Jer-kins technigue to the residuals of the multiple regression. These uodels were compared for predictive validity, fiecom&endations for further development of models containing explicit time series elements are presented.