An examination of high quality enlistees on a Recruiting district level.
Irlam, Ross Edward
Mc Kenzie, Ed.
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Two distinct analytical techniques were used to develop nodels to forecast the number of high quality non prior service nales enlisting monthly in the U.S. Navy on a recruiting district level. The Box-Jenkins methodology was applied to a monthly time series of enlistments for the period Octcter 1978 to September 1983. A multiple regression causal model vas developed rased on the explanitory variables: numbers of unemployed, change in the rate of unemployment and military/civilian pay ratio. A combined time series/causal model was developed by applying the Eox-Jer-kins technigue to the residuals of the multiple regression. These uodels were compared for predictive validity, fiecom&endations for further development of models containing explicit time series elements are presented.