An examination of high quality enlistees on a Recruiting district level.

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Author
Irlam, Ross Edward
Date
1984Advisor
Thomas, G.W.
McKenzie, Ed
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Two distinct analytical techniques were used to develop
nodels to forecast the number of high quality non prior
service nales enlisting monthly in the U.S. Navy on a
recruiting district level. The Box-Jenkins methodology was
applied to a monthly time series of enlistments for the
period Octcter 1978 to September 1983. A multiple regression
causal model vas developed rased on the explanitory variables:
numbers of unemployed, change in the rate of unemployment and military/civilian pay ratio. A combined time
series/causal model was developed by applying the
Eox-Jer-kins technigue to the residuals of the multiple
regression. These uodels were compared for predictive
validity, fiecom&endations for further development of models
containing explicit time series elements are presented.