Intermediate term forecasting techniques for management.

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Author
Herring, David L.
Date
1984-06Advisor
Carrick, Paul F.
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasts
are made for the prices of a variety of commodities one year
into the future in an attempt to determine if improved
budget accuracy is possible for small businesses dependent
upon commodities for the production of goods or services.
An average forecast error of less than seven percent is
obtained using commonly available ARIMA computer software
employable on inexpensive microcomputers. It is concluded
small businesses can affordably obtain more accurate
commodity price budgets through the use of ARIMA forecasts.