One dimensional model hindcasts of warm anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean.

Download
Author
Jaramillow, Bernardino J.
Date
1984-12Advisor
Garwood, Roland W. Jr.
Second Reader
Elsberry, Russell L.
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Hindcasts of the development, maintenance and decay of
warm anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean are attempted with
the Garwood one-dimensional ocean mixed layer model. Monthly
temperature analyses from the North Pacific Ocean Experiment
(NORPAX) provide the initial and verifying fields, and the
atmospheric forcing is derived from FNOC archived analyses,
large systematic errors in the anomaly hindcasts during the
early summer are apparently due to erroneous surface heat
flux specifications. Variations of the heat flux corrections
proposed by Elsberry et al. (1982) are extensively tested
for one warm anomaly development period. The climatology of
Wyrtki (1967) is the heat flux specification most successful
in simulating the observed anomaly patterns. The hindcasts
demonstrate the importance of an accurate heat flux specification
for correct prediction of warm anomalies.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.Collections
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
An assessment of data requirements for quasigeostrophic nowcasts and hindcasts of a mesoscale eddy field in the California Current System with application to fall transition
Johnson, John Edward. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1990-03);An extensive Ocean Prediction Through Observation, Modeling, and Analysis (OPTOMA) domain, off Northern and Central California, was surveyed in November 1986, during OPTOMA 23. Surface dynamic height (SDH), sea surface ... -
Statistical-dynamical forecasting of tropical cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic at intraseasonal lead times
Raynak, Chad S. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2009-06);We have created a combined statistical-dynamical model to predict the probability of tropical cyclone (TC) formation at daily, 2.5Â°Ì horizontal resolution in the North Atlantic (NA) at intraseasonal lead times. Based on ... -
Long-range forecasting of the onset of southwest monsoon winds and waves near the Horn of Africa
Vines, Gary M. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2017-12);The Asian southwest monsoon (SWM) east of the Horn of Africa (HOA) is important in planning and conducting maritime operations in this region. Skillful subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts of the SWM onset are needed ...