Decision models for conducting an economic analysis of alternative fuels for the ice engine.

Abstract

An economic analysis is made of vehicles powered by compressed natural gas (CNG), alcohol, and electric vehicles (EV's) as possible replacements for gasoline-powered vehicles. Advantages and disadvantages of vehicles powered by the various fuels are discussed and determinations of their suitability are made based on vehicle performance characteristics and fuel availability. CNG and EV's are determined to be viable alternatives based on current state-of-the-art technology. Alcohol is not retained as a viable alternative because of limited fuel availability. Models are presented for determining the total life cycle cost for gasoline, CNG, and EV's. A fleet of seventy-two vehicles at the Naval Postgraduate School is used as an example to compare the cost of each alternative. A linear program is used to determine the mix of gasoline, CNG, and electric vehicles that satisfy mission requirements for the least total fleet life cycle cost and to perform sensitivity analysis on the cost determinants. A generalized formulation is also presented to allow a vehicle fleet manager to use the methodology of this thesis as an aid to evaluating the potential of alternatively-fueled vehicles in different situations.